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MAIN DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY




Scientific and practical significance of developments and research of the laboratory of IISAD

The Laboratory of Integrated Intelligent Systems of Automated Design (IISAD) of the Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences is engaged in the development and research of reliability in the economics during 10 years. Approbation of the results is carried out at annual international scientific conferences "Modeling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems" (2001-2016), as well as in the educational process of the Faculty of Economics in the State University of Aerospace Instrumentation (SUAI). A course "Risk Management Technologies in Economics" was created and realized during one semester, including lectures and 10 laboratory works on a computer with special developed software.

Studies have not got financial support as grants from the RAS and the Ministry of Education. The main results (more than 30 papers) were published in the journals "Problems of Risk Analysis" and "International Journal of Risk and Analysis Management".

This site is designed to popularize and explain the concepts of the new scientific trend "Management of Security in Socio-Economic Systems". Below we will consider the relevance, practical and scientific significance of the research.

Relevance. In engineering, specialists evaluate (for machines, systems and processes) and control reliability in order to reduce the number of failures, accidents and catastrophes and, accordingly, losses. In the economics, although there are a large number of devastations and crises with large losses, there is no theory of economic reliability and reliability management. The development and research of reliability theory in economics is an urgent task.

Practical significance. LP risk models of SES are designed to solve following important economic problems:

  1. QUALITY CONTROL. Logical-probabilistic models of invalidity (risk of loss of quality) are used.
  2. EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF PROBLEM'S DECISION. Hybrid logical-probabilistic models of the risk of success in problem's decision are used.
  3. FORECASTING THE SUCCESS OF EVOLUTION. Conceptual Logical-Probabilistic models for predicting the success of evolution are used.
  4. DANGER ASSESSMENT. Indicative logical-probabilistic models of danger are used.
  5. RISK ASSESSMENT. Logical-probabilistic risk modeling is used.
  6. ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT. It is performed for all models according to items 1 - 5.

All these tasks can be solved for a comprehensive analysis of a single SES.

Scientific significance. The scientific discipline "Top-Economics" uses the event approach, LP-risk models, LP-calculus. It contains:

  1. Methods for constructing LP risk models:
    • Transition from database to knowledge base;
    • Use of the structural connection of events;
    • Use of invalid events.
  2. Methods for assessing probabilities of events:
    • Calculating the event's invalidity level;
    • Expert estimation of probabilities of event-statements;
    • Estimation of probabilities of events according to statistical data by the identification method.
  3. New types of event-statements and LP-models of risk.
  4. Risk management technologies based on LP-models.
  5. Special Software.

References

  1. Соложенцев Е. Д. Топ-экономика. Управление экономической безопасностью. 2-е изд. СПб. Троицкий мост. 2016. 272 с.
  2. Solozhentsev E. D. The Management of Socioeconomic Safety. - Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2017, 255 p.
  3. URL: http://www.topeconomics.ru





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Intelligent Integrated Systems of Automated Designing Laboratory", IPME RAS
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