MAIN DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Many publications are proving the unsatisfactory economic situation. The concept of economic development, based on endless economic growth, causes great doubts. There are problems in economic management theory also. Management is performed, mainly, by "unwritten but well-known code of behaviour" and "give more money" principles, which inevitably leads to corruption. We need a new worldview and a new mathematical apparatus.
Groups of famous scientists and specialists are working for the President and elaboratong the program of economic development of Russia for 2018 - 2025. A large number of institutions and thousands of scientists and government officials participate in this work. But discussions and disputes with the absence of a scientific basis do not lead to results.
We propose the development and correction of the economic development program based on the management of socio-economic safety. Logical-probabilistic risk models and an event-based approach are used.
2. Programs of economic growth by Kudrin and Glazyev
The problem, however which is complicated,
will become more difficult
if it is not properly viewed.
The State budget is spent for socio-economic systems (SES) and projects. Losses of the State also arise in SES and projects due to corruption, narcotization, "kickbacks", theft, decision-making "by unwritten but well-known code of behaviour", excessive spending for military projects. However, the authors of the economic development programs of Russia for 2018-2025 insistently do not consider the SES, but consider something ephemeral: investments, inflation, labor productivity, etc., operate with large-scale objectives and tasks which are incomprehensible solved. Their economic growth management programs do not have a scientific basis and are suggestions "by unwritten but well-known code of behaviour" with comments of diverse and conflicting statistics from different countries in different times.
A. Kudrin's program - the head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), assessing the current socio-economic situation in the country, notes: the old model of the economy does not work, low GDP growth, unfavorable demography, lack of investment due to sanctions, technological backwardness, low productivity and poor quality of public administration. He is proposing to begin the reform with a large-scale change in the system of public administration. The steps, that should be made by the government and the President, are extraordinary and serious:
The program of S. Glazyev, the presidential adviser on economics, is stated in the letter "Eight errors of Kudrin" and this is good example of inconclusive evidences and arguments by "unwritten but well-known code of behaviour", even if the debate is conducted by the largest scientists and specialists. S. Glazyev believes that the economic program of A. Kudrin will lead to economic degradation and a drop in the standard of living of the population. He advises to run the money printing. The errors in the Kudrin program are following:
In conclusion, we note that discussions and disputes about country's economic development programs do not lead to positive results because of the lack of a scientific basis for economic management. Calls to reduce inflation, eliminate technological backwardness, increase labor productivity, increase investment, run money printing, cannot ensure the growth of the economics.
3. Development and correction of the new program of economic development of the country
Mathematical methods for
management of economic and social
systems should be based
on sets, logic and probabilities.
Norbert Wiener, John von Neumann
The economics of the country is a complex system. The features of a complex system, as a object under control, include:
Decomposition. To manage a complex system in the economics, we propose to use decomposition - the division of the whole into parts. Decomposition is a scientific method that allows replace the solution of a large problem by solving series of smaller problems.
Structuring is the process of dividing the system into parts and establishing a connection between them. To the end of process we get a system that is foreseeable for management.
The event-based approach to the system, its elements and connections is the basis for management of a complex system based on logical-probabilistic risk models. Each system, its subsystems and their parameters are associated with event-statements and corresponding logical variables. Logical functions from initiating events are written for derivative and final events. Probabilities of derivative and final events are calculated under probabilities of initiating events.
Objects of decomposition, structuring and management. They are:
Group SES-1. Includes SES of the highest importance for the State, aimed to reduce losses and increase profits:
SES-2 group contains complex SES for the state and regions, depending on several ministries and departments:
SES-3 group contains local SES for companies and firms whose success depends mainly on their desires and capabilities:
The SES' connection is provided by repeated initiating events that are included in the LP risk model of different SESs.
LP-models for quantitative evaluation, analysis and management of SES and projects are built on the basis of the logical-probabilistic approach and the introduction of event-statements for the economics: invalidity (quality), a hybrid model of the risk of problem's decision failure, a conceptual model for predicting the invalidity of the system, an indicative model of system's danger, a model for assessing the quality of the management system, special software. The core model is the model of invalidity (quality). Other types of models are used for comprehensive system analysis.
Consistency of development of the country's economic development program:
We constructed and researched more than ten logical-probabilistic models of risk of different SES.
Correction of the country's economic development program is performed in real time on basis of monitoring parameters of the external and internal environment and changing logical-probabilistic models of SES's invalidity. Correction is performed on signal events when new statistical data about state of the system, event-statements in the economics, politics, laws, innovations, staff qualification, changes in the situation on the world market, reforms in education, science and economics, are appeared. Probabilities of initiating events in logical-probabilistic models of SESs are changed and new estimations of the quality of systems and contributions of initiating events are obtained.
The emergence of a new scientific approach to management in the economics is associated with certain difficulties caused by the use of the new apparatus: logical-probabilistic risk models and special software tools. The basics of such technology are not studied in universities. Therefore, it is necessary to train students and retrain economists, including senior government officials.
The list and content of organizational arrangements for the formation of a new effective scientific trend in the economics are following:
The team of scientists who created the new effective scientific direction in the economics "Management of Socio-Economic Safety" offers cooperation for state structures and can provide consultations.
Intelligent Integrated Systems of Automated Designing Laboratory", IPME RAS