MAIN DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY
CONCEPTS, OBJECTS, MODELS, MANAGEMENT
In the 21st century economics will develop on the basis of ideas by Kate Raworth and her "Doughnut Economics" , and the technology "Socio-Economic Systems Safety Management" [2, 3], rather than permanent economic growth.
A well-known English journalist George Monbiot in his paper "Finally, a breakthrough alternative to growth economics - the doughnut", published in the Guardian, summarized the main ideas of Kate Raworth's "Doughnut Economics" , which is being prepared for publication. Academics have demonstrated huge interest in this book. Quite a lot of scientists believe that the 21st century economy will develop on the basis of Kate Raworth's innovative ideas.
The paper points out that we are facing an all-pervading crisis - billionaires and their lobbyists are seizing governments, social inequality is thriving, the living world lies in ruins. Those who rule us seem to be silent. Even if they were brave enough to act, they would not know what to do. Most of them propose to increase economic growth. They do not care that it will cause an ecological crisis, that it will not solve the problems of structural unemployment and growing social inequality, that income growth in the last few years was achieved due to the income of the rich. They have lost their values, principles and moral values - all that is left for them is to promise economic growth.
Commerce and growth are of top priority in most jobs and positions now. Only the speed of turning natural resources into cash matters. We cannot cope with our current predicament without resorting to a new vision. We cannot cope with our crises by resorting to the models which caused these crises. A new vision of the problem has to emerge.
Economics should be aimed at reducing income inequality. The profit, made selling natural resources, should be distributed between all members of society. Finances, markets, taxation and state investments should be aimed at retaining and renewing resources, not at squandering them. Banks should invest in the projects which transform our relations with the living world. New criteria will measure real prosperity, and not the speed with which we are degenerating.
Scientists from St. Petersburg propose another approach to economic prosperity which could be achieved by "Socioeconomic systems safety management".
Thousands of scholars are speaking about economic efficiency for many years but there is no any result. Here we cannot but recollect the words of a classic "However complex a problem might be, it will become more complex, if you look at it at the wrong angle" (P. Anderson) and a quote of the outstanding scientist "No problem can be solved at the level, at which it appeared" (A. Einstein).
We propose using an event-related logical probabilistic (LP) approach to the construction of models, analysis and management of socio-economic systems and processes in economy. First of all we deal with the socio-economic systems which are of top priority for the state. Their purpose is to reduce losses, increase revenues and provide national security. These are as follows:
They also deals with complex socioeconomic systems of the country and its regions which depend on a number of ministries and governmental departments, as well as local socio-economic systems of companies. The success of managing such companies depends mainly on the wishes and possibilities of the companies themselves.
At present the management of socioeconomic systems is performed "by notions", "by manual control" and using the principle "Give more money". Obviously, without building the model of socio-economic system state risk one cannot talk about its effective control.
The book describes the current state of the problem of risk management in socioeconomic systems. It also substantiates the choice of mathematical tools for solving the problem. It offers new types of Boolean events-propositions in economy and describes the techniques of building logical probabilistic system risk models, LP-analysis of the risk of socioeconomic systems state risk, as well as LP-management of the state and development of systems. The software for LP-management in economy is described. New types of LP-risk models are presented with events-propositions and socioeconomic systems with high priority. Techniques of synthesizing probabilities for events-propositions, dynamics in LP risk models and management systems quality assessment are described. The examples of LP-risk management of various social economic systems are provided.
Budget is spent for socioeconomic systems. All losses in State are caused by corruption, narcotization, "kickbacks", decision-making "by concepts", peculation and excessive expenses for social and military projects. Therefore, management of safety in socio-economic systems based on new methodological approach with logical and probabilistic risk models is important trend for evolution economics in XXI century.
We believe that in the 21st century economy will not develop on the basis of appeals for growth, but on the basis of new directions in science, started by Kate Raworth in her "Doughnut Economics" and the author of "Socioeconomic Systems Safety Management".
The main aim of this site is explanation of scientific bases for new trend in economics "Management of Safety in Socio-Economic Systems" and estimation, analysis and management of risk and efficiency in complex systems based on eventful logical and probabilistic method. Materials of published books and papers, written by authors of this scientific trend, are used.
The implementation of the concept of economic development in the 21st century, proposed by Kate Raworth, is proposed to achieve with use of the logical and probabilistic model of safety management. The logical and probabilistic model of invalidity is constructed on invalidities of parameters that can change beyond the outer and inner boundaries of a safe space for humanity.
Values of invalid parameters are calculated and optimized on the appropriate logical and probabilistic models of socio-economic systems safety.
The invalidity (quality) of a safe space, as an event and a logical variable, can be considered for humanity, countries and regions of countries.
Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation, Professor, Doctor in Tech. Science,
Head of CAD Integrated Systems Laboratory of the Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of RAS.
Professor of the Department "Information Technologies in Business", St. Petersburg State University of
Aerospace Instrumentation. The Chairman of the National Organizing and Program Committee in International
Science Schools "Modeling and Analysis of Risk and Safety in Complex Systems"(2001-2011, 2014, 2015,
St. Petersburg). He has published more than 300 scientific works in Russian and English, including 9
books (3 - in English). Research interests: modeling, analysis and management of safety and risk on stages
of design, testing and operation of engineering and socioeconomic systems. He has created the scientific
basis of Building Automated Debugging Systems of Complex Objects, developed the basics of Risk Management
Technologies in complex systems and scientific discipline “Top-economics”. E. Solozhentsev is a guest editor
of journals "Problems of Risk Analysis" and "International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management".
Main biographical facts: 1960 – graduated from the Kharkov Polytechnic University; 1967 – Candidate of Technical Sciences (The Central Diesel Research and Development Establishment, Leningrad); 1983 – Doctor of Technical Sciences (The Cybernetics Institute, The Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Kiev); 1994 – Professor; 1967 – 1985 – Head of the Department of CAD/CAM/CAT systems in industry (Gorky and Sumy, Ukraine). Since 1986 he has been working in IPME of RAS. Since 1992 he is Professor of SUAI.
Vasily Karasev, Cand. in Tech. Science, senior research worker of Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of Russian Academy of Sciences (IPME RAS), Intellectual Integrated Systems of Automated Design Laboratory. Research interests: logic, probability theory, combinatorial analysis, optimization methods, graph theory, classification methods and expert systems, socio-economic system modeling, data analysis. He is the author of more than 55 published papers and co-author of three books.
Intelligent Integrated Systems of Automated Designing Laboratory", IPME RAS